Big Favorites Keep Their Foot on the Gas

We graded every passing touchdown prop from 2023 through 2025, Weeks 2 through 18, against the consensus line at kickoff. Across all quarterbacks, the over hit about half the time. For quarterbacks whose team was favored by 7 or more, it hit 59%, and it beat 50% in every one of those seasons.

Passing TD overs, QBs favored by 7 or more

The bigger the spread, the stronger it gets: 53% for quarterbacks favored by 3 or more, 59% at 7 or more, 65% at 10 or more. Passing yards point the same way, with overs at 56% for 7-point favorites over the three seasons and 13 of 19 so far this year.

They don't throw more. They throw better. From 2023 to 2025, teams favored by 7 or more threw 32 passes a game, one fewer than everyone else. But they threw 2.0 touchdown passes a game, against 1.4 for everyone else.

The touchdowns come early. Big favorites average 17.5 passes before halftime and 14.5 after it, and 54% of their touchdown passes come in the first half. By the time a lead turns into handoffs, the passing touchdowns are usually already on the board.

Attempts are the exception. Because the second half slows down, attempts props don't follow the trend. Overs hit 49% for 7-point favorites and just 36% for 10-point favorites. Touchdowns and yards go up. Volume doesn't.

The line matters. Nearly all of these touchdown props sit at 1.5, and that's where the trend lives: 59% overs. When the book had already set the line at 2.5, the over went 9 of 18.

Five quarterbacks are favored by 7 or more in Week 6. A trend is where we start, not where we stop. The EP model weighs the matchup, the price and each player's role, and this week it sides with the trend on two of the five.

• Matthew Stafford, Rams (-12.5 vs. Arizona): the model goes under on his 2.5 touchdowns and 34.5 attempts. The attempts under is the part of the trend that runs the other way: Stafford has thrown 51 or more passes in each of his last three games, and a 12.5-point favorite rarely needs to. His touchdown line is already 2.5, where the trend thins out, even with Arizona tied for the most touchdown passes allowed.
• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (-7.5 vs. the Chargers): the model leans under 224.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. The Chargers have allowed 205.0 passing yards a game, 6th-fewest, and the model projects Mahomes for 216.
• Daniel Jones, Colts (-7 vs. Tennessee): the model is under on all of his passing props, including 1.5 touchdowns. Jones has 3 touchdown passes in five games and none in his last two, and Tennessee has allowed just 5 all season.

One caution: a quarterback is favored by 7 or more only 60 to 80 times a season, so this is a small sample that has held up every year, not a rule. The EP Score is still the call on each player.