Sunday Night MLB Intel

Simpson has been scuffling, just 6-for-33 over his last 10 games, a .182 clip that doesn't scream extra-base pop. A total bases line of 1.5 means he needs a double or two singles to clear it, and the recent form suggests that's asking a lot right now. The model projects him right around 1.0 total bases, half a base shy of the line.

Messick gets the ball for Cleveland in Game 5, and he's been sharp lately, a 2.75 ERA with 21 strikeouts over his last five outings. That combination of missing bats and limiting damage is exactly the profile you want on a night when the model has him projected at 1.3 earned runs, just under this 1.5 line. He's CLE's announced starter tonight against a Rays lineup that just lit up the Guardians for 7 runs in Game 4, but Messick's individual form has held up well on its own merits.

Rasmussen has been nearly untouchable over his last five outings, a 1.10 ERA to go with 35 strikeouts, the kind of stretch that makes a hits-allowed under feel reasonable. He's Tampa Bay's starter tonight on the road against Cleveland, and the projection sits at 4.1 hits allowed, just under the 4.5 mark. Given how few runs he's allowed lately, the model likes him to keep this one under wraps.