Sunday NFL Intel

Baltimore leaned on Henry last week without Lamar Jackson, and he answered with 24 carries for 102 yards in the overtime win at Atlanta. Jackson is out again with his ankle injury, so Tyler Huntley makes a second straight start and the offense should run through Henry once more. He's at 95.2 rushing yards a game on 22.6 carries this season with seven rushing touchdowns, after 1,595 yards last year. Cleveland allows 4.5 yards a carry and plays without defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr., and the model projects 96.7 yards. The one knock is that he's been stuffed on 19% of his carries, a touch above average.

Kelce is at 61.5 receiving yards a game through four games, nine yards over this line, with 16 catches on 22 targets and two touchdowns. Those targets should climb on Sunday with Rashee Rice ruled out with a hamstring injury and Tyquan Thornton on injured reserve. The Chargers have held teams to 193 passing yards a game, 6th-fewest in the league, but they play without safety Derwin James and cornerback Donte Jackson. Kelce also ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards after the catch above expected, and the model projects 55.7 yards.

Williams is running at 4.9 yards a carry and has been stuffed on just 10% of his attempts, well below the 18% a typical back sees. That has him at 68.6 rushing yards a game with four touchdowns, after 1,252 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns last season. The Rams are double-digit favorites at home, a game script that usually means plenty of carries, and Arizona allows 4.4 yards a carry and plays without safeties Andrew Wingard and Wydett Williams Jr. The model projects 73.4 yards. Blake Corum shares the backfield, so a lopsided score could hand him some late carries.