Saturday Night MLB Intel
Rays and Guardians play Game 4 of the ALCS with Cleveland up 2-1 in the series, and the props here are all about contact quality rather than power. Chandler Simpson and Liam Hicks both come in cold at the plate for Tampa Bay, while Cleveland's Chase DeLauter has been doing real damage over his last 10 games. The model likes fading the two Rays bats and backing the Guardians hitter in the middle of a strong stretch.
Chandler SimpsonTB @ CLE · Progressive Field8:08 PM ET Simpson is hitting .212 over his last 10 games, going 7-for-33 with 5 RBI in that stretch. That's not the profile of a guy racking up extra bases, it's a guy fighting for singles. The model projects 1.0 total bases against a 1.5 line, and with Simpson's recent form, staying under feels like the right read here.
Liam HicksTB @ CLE · Progressive Field8:08 PM ET Hicks has been scuffling too, a 7-for-35 showing over his last 10 games for a .200 average, with 4 RBI mixed in. Hits plus runs plus RBIs needing to clear 1.5 is a tall ask for a hitter in this kind of stretch, and the projection here sits at 1.1. Against a Cleveland pitching staff that's already taken two of three in this series, Hicks doesn't look like the guy to break out of it tonight.
Chase DeLauterTB @ CLE · Progressive Field8:08 PM ET DeLauter is a Guardians bat getting it done lately: 11-for-38 over his last 10 games, a .289 mark that comes with 2 home runs and 6 RBI mixed in. That kind of power output means he's not just slapping singles, with two home runs in his last 10 games. The projection has him at 0.9 total bases against a 0.5 line, and given the recent pop, clearing that number doesn't ask much of him.
All three plays tonight lean on recent batting form rather than matchup history, since that's what the research gives us for this series. The two Rays unders both point to hitters who've been cold for 10 games, while the Guardians play rides a hitter who's been doing the opposite. Worth noting none of these picks hinge on what Game 4 means for the series, Cleveland still just needs results, not a clinch.
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