Tuesday Night MLB Intel

Sale has been about as tough to square up as anyone in baseball lately, running a 2.14 ERA with 40 strikeouts over his last five outings. That's a swing-and-miss rate that doesn't leave a ton of room for hard contact, let alone a hit total climbing toward five. Facing Philadelphia this afternoon at Truist Park, the projection sits at 4.1, comfortably under the line. When a pitcher is missing bats at this rate, the hits tend to take care of themselves.

Smith has posted a 4.50 ERA with 9 strikeouts over his last five outings, and while the ERA isn't eye-popping, the workload has been there to get through outs at a steady clip. Tonight he takes the mound for CWS @ HOU at Daikin Park, first pitch 5:00 PM ET, with the projection landing at 3.7 against a 3.5 line. It's a modest edge, but enough to like the over on outs recorded.

Tolle has been sharp lately, posting a 2.83 ERA with 37 strikeouts over his last five outings, a strikeout rate that speaks to how well he's missing bats and limiting damage. He heads to Yankee Stadium tonight for BOS @ NYY, first pitch 8:00 PM ET, with the projection at 1.3 earned runs against a 1.5 line. That combination of recent form and projection supports staying under.