Week 3 Recap: What Held, What Didn't, and What Changes in Week 4

• Touchdown scorers. Gibbs scored three times, and Henry, Walker, McCaffrey and Smith-Njigba all found the end zone at 90+. Through three weeks, the anytime TD model is 14-3 at 90+.
• Rushing attempts. Carry props went 11-6 at 90+. Love, Cook and Croskey-Merritt each beat their lines by six carries or more, and both Bears backs cleared theirs on Monday night.
• Wide receivers. Receivers went 11-6 at 90+. Smith-Njigba went for 128 yards and two touchdowns, and Chase for 98.
• Passing. With passing held to the low 90s, pass attempts went 10-7 at 90+, and passing as a whole finished near even (18-19) after 4-13 in Week 2.
• Sunday's best games. Jets-Lions went 7-1 at 90+, Seahawks-Commanders 6-2 and Bengals-Steelers 5-2.

• The top of the board. Rushing yards took six of the top-tier spots and went 0-6, starting with Robinson's 194 yards on Thursday night. That is where the change below starts.

Scores that adjust as results come in. The board ranks every category on one shared scale, and in Week 3 the biggest rushing-yard reads sat at the top without the record to back it. The board is moving to EP scores that adjust as results come in, so the kinds of reads that turn out to be the weakest get scaled back naturally as the season goes on, while the ones that keep delivering hold the top tiers. Big rushing-yard reads are the first to come down, starting with Week 4.

The bigger picture. Three weeks in, every team has three games of 2026 data, and the models get more and better data every week as the season rolls on. This week, half of the player and defense numbers behind each read come from this season, and from Week 5 on, this season's numbers take over wherever they exist. Our results so far are in line with our backtests, where the opening weeks have been the weakest stretch and the model has been stronger once more of the season's data is in. Touchdown scorers at 14-3, with rushing attempts and wide receivers winning at 90+, show where the reads are already sharp. Week 4 picks land in the app on Wednesday, starting with Steelers at Browns on Thursday night.