Sunday Night MLB Intel
Miguel Vargas quietly enters the day riding a stretch that includes two homers and nine RBI, and the model loves him to just get on base at all tonight against Colorado. DJ Herz has one line to his name so far and it wasn't pretty, which matters when he's staring down a Mets lineup Sunday afternoon. And in Sacramento, Yainer Diaz is hitting .350 over his last ten games, but the number that jumps off the page tonight isn't his batting average, it's where the model has him landing on a combined total. Three plays, three different reasons to feel good about the numbers in front of you.
Miguel VargasCOL @ CWS · Rate Field3:10 PM ET Vargas has been quietly productive, going 9-for-34 over his last 10 games with two home runs and nine RBI. That kind of pop means he's finding barrels, and finding barrels means runs eventually follow, whether it's a solo shot or a two-out single that gets driven in behind him. The Rockies come to Rate Field this afternoon, and at -123 the number here is basically betting that Vargas keeps doing what he's already been doing.
DJ HerzNYM @ WSH · Nationals Park1:05 PM ET One start isn't a big sample, but it's the one we've got, and it wasn't good. Herz allowed enough over that outing to post a 9.00 ERA while managing just four strikeouts, and the model isn't projecting much of a bounce back in the whiff department tonight against the Mets. At 1:05 PM ET first pitch, this reads as a fade on a pitcher who hasn't shown he can miss enough bats to clear this number right now.
Yainer DiazHOU @ ATH · Sutter Health Park3:05 PM ET Diaz has been one of the better hitters in baseball over his last 10 games, 14-for-40 with three home runs and seven RBI, a .350 clip that would turn heads in any window. But the model still likes the under here, projecting 2.0 against a 2.5 line, which tells you this isn't really about whether Diaz is going to hit, it's about the shape of tonight's specific total. At -135, the number is short, and Sutter Health Park hosts Astros-Athletics at 3:05 PM ET with Houston's model number landing right under the line.
Two of the stronger plays tonight go against the grain of what a hitter's recent numbers might suggest on the surface, Vargas cashing on modest recent output and Diaz's under coming despite a .350 stretch. That's the value in props like these: the model isn't just reading a hot streak, it's reading where the number actually sits relative to it.
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