Sunday NFL Intel

Kincaid has opened 2026 with 12 catches for 225 yards in two games, 112.5 yards a game, and his 14 targets lead the Bills. That's nearly double this line, after he averaged 47.6 yards a game last season. The matchup helps too: the Chargers have allowed 262.5 passing yards a game through two games, 5th-most in the league, and by the model's measure they allow 7.6 yards per attempt, 5th-softest. Buffalo also lists receivers DJ Moore (shoulder) and Keon Coleman (ankle) as questionable, which could leave even more of the passing game to Kincaid. The model projects 61.4.

Smith-Njigba has 17 catches for 277 yards and four touchdowns through two games, 138.5 yards a game, on 22 of Seattle's 50 targets. The model has that 44% share as the highest in the league, and notes he's caught 77% of his targets against its 64% baseline. Drew Lock threw nearly every pass in those two games; Sam Darnold is back for Sunday, and Smith-Njigba's 1,793-yard 2025 season came with Darnold at quarterback. Washington has allowed 3.5 passing touchdowns a game so far, and the model projects 98.9 against a 92.5 line.

Concepcion has caught 10 of his 11 targets as a rookie, 5 catches a game, and his 11 targets are tied with fellow rookie Denzel Boston for the Browns' lead. The model notes that 91% catch rate against its 64% baseline, and he averages 3.6 yards of separation, above the model's 2.9 baseline. Carolina has allowed 195 passing yards a game through two games, 12th-fewest in the league, and the model projects 3.6 catches against a 3.5 line.