Thursday Night NFL Intel
Atlanta arrives at Lambeau having scored 16 points in two games, and Green Bay is a 5-point favorite with the total at 43. The Packers are banged up too: Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs are both out, and the backs left behind Jacobs have managed just 64.5 rushing yards a game. That makes this a tough night for Bijan Robinson against a stingy Green Bay run front, and a real opening for Kaleb Johnson if the Packers go looking for a spark.
Bijan RobinsonATL at GBThursday, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET Through two games, Robinson has run for exactly 77.5 yards a game, a yard short of this line before the matchup even enters the picture. Green Bay's run defense has allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards a game and the 2nd-lowest yards per carry in the league so far this season. The model rates it the toughest run defense in the league by yards per carry, and that is the read driving this under.
MarShawn LloydATL at GBThursday, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET Lloyd has two catches for 6 yards through two games this season. The model flags him playing just 36% of snaps, a low share for a running back, and that workload doesn't clear 5.5 receiving yards on its own. Nothing about his usage so far suggests a jump is coming.
Kaleb JohnsonATL at GBThursday, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET Green Bay is not getting much from its top two backs: with Josh Jacobs out, Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd have combined for 97 rushing yards on 30 carries, just 3.2 a carry. Johnson has been the most efficient of the three at 4.0 yards a carry, and the model notes 14% of his carries have gone for 10-plus yards against a league average of 10%. His volume has been light so far, just 8 carries in two games. With the top two backs struggling, he could see a snap increase, and the model projects 41.5 yards against the 38.5 line.
Green Bay is 1-1, falling 39-22 at Minnesota before edging the Jets 20-17, while Atlanta is 0-2 and has been outscored 54-16. Beyond Parsons and Jacobs, Javon Hargrave is questionable for Green Bay, and Atlanta lists Billy Bowman Jr. as questionable after losing A.J. Terrell Jr. to injured reserve. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at Lambeau Field.
Elite Picks is a research and analytics platform. We do not accept wagers. All content is for informational and research purposes.