Thursday Night MLB Intel

Tucker is hitting .375 over his last 10 games with 3 home runs and 5 RBI, and that form is why the model likes him to reach at least one total base tonight. He's set for a 10:10 PM ET first pitch against San Diego, and the recent power suggests extra-base upside, not just a lonely single. At -137, the market is pricing in what the swing has shown: this version of Tucker is finding barrels.

Jung's last 10 games look solid on the surface, 12-for-41 with 2 homers and 5 RBI, but the projection here says 1.1 total bases, comfortably under this 1.5 line. A .293 average over that stretch is more about singles mixing with the occasional big swing than a hitter who's racking up extra bases every night. Against the Mets this afternoon at Globe Life Field, the number says script a quieter line for Jung.

Sandlin's ERA over his last five starts sits at 5.55, which on its face doesn't scream "bet the under," but the projection of 1.7 earned runs suggests today is shaping up as one of his better outings relative to that recent run. He's also racked up 25 strikeouts in those five starts, so the swing-and-miss is there even when the results haven't fully cooperated. Facing Kansas City in the early afternoon window, -144 on DraftKings says the books see the same gap between his stuff and his line that the model does.