Week 2 Recap: What Held, What Didn't, and What Changes in Week 3

• Receiving. Catches and receiving yards went 24-11 at 90+, and the overs went 18-6. Kincaid, Kelce, Montgomery, Pollard, Kyren Williams and Rachaad White each went 2-0 on their catch and yardage props.
• Touchdown scorers. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs all found the end zone at 90+ this week. After Week 1's 6-0, the anytime TD model is 9-1 at 90+ through two weeks, a 90% hit rate.
• The board as a whole. The full 90+ board went 51-46, up from 38-47 in Week 1, with Bengals-Texans 7-1 and Colts-Chiefs 7-2 leading the way. Overs went 31-26 at 90+ on a board that was balanced by design this week.

• Passing. 4-13 at 90+, with pass attempts 1-7. Eight quarterbacks carried two or three markets each on the same side, so one wrong read cost two or three picks, and game script decided most of them: Carson Wentz threw 23 times in a 9-3 game while Jalen Hurts threw 40 in one that stayed close. Jaxson Dart's picks were voided after his first-quarter exit, the way the books settled them.
• Where passing sat. Three of the top four scores on the board were passing props, above every receiving pick. That is a scoring problem, not a passing problem, and it is fixed below.

Passing is capped in the low 90s. Every category was ranked on one shared scale, and the passing model's reads run larger than the receiving model's, so passing floated to the top on the size of its read rather than its record. Starting with the Week 3 board, no passing prop scores above 93, and the 95+ and 99 tiers belong to receiving, rushing and touchdown scorers, the categories that have earned them. Passing picks still show their matchup read, and the passing model goes back through validation on the same early-season inputs the live board uses. It returns to the top tiers when it clears the bar receiving already has.

The bigger picture. Two weeks in, the models have seen two games of real 2026 data per team, and every week adds more. The inputs settle, the reads sharpen and the scores get steadier, so the models will only continue to improve as the season goes on. A winning Week 2 at 90+, with receiving and touchdown scorers already paying, is an exciting sign of things to come. The Week 3 board is already posting, starting with Falcons at Packers on Thursday night.