Tuesday Night MLB Intel

Bleday's last 10 games read 7-for-32, a .219 stretch, but he's still got a homer and two RBI mixed in there, which is exactly the kind of pop that keeps a total bases over alive even when the batting average isn't cooperating. He just needs one extra-base hit or a couple of singles to clear this number, and the juice on this one at -137 tells you the market isn't worried about the cold stretch either. Cincinnati is on the road at Truist Park for a 7:15 PM ET first pitch, and Bleday projects to 0.7 total bases against a line of just 0.5.

Here's the wrinkle: Jung is actually swinging it well, 12-for-38 over his last 10 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI, a .316 stretch that looks nothing like a player you'd fade. But the total bases number sits at 1.5, and the projection still comes in under at 1.1, which means the model sees enough soft contact or single-heavy production mixed into that hot run to keep him below the line. Texas hosts the Mets at Globe Life Field at 8:05 PM ET, and at -140 this is the sharpest lean on the board relative to its edge.

Stewart's been the steadier of the two Reds bats in this lede, hitting .282 over his last 10 games (11-for-39) with a homer and three RBI, and a hits prop set at just 0.5 is about as forgiving a bar as you'll find for a hitter running that kind of average. He's part of the same Reds lineup heading into Truist Park for the 7:15 PM ET start, and the projection of 1.0 hits against this line gives it the widest edge of the three plays tonight. One clean single does the job here.