Monday Night NFL Intel
Monday night sends the Giants to Los Angeles as 6.5-point road underdogs, but the model's three edges lean on player usage more than the spread. On the Rams' side it wants both backs under, with Blake Corum's rushing capped behind lead man Kyren Williams and Williams's own receiving work staying light. On the Giants' side it backs quarterback Jaxson Dart to run against a Rams front that plays one of the league's lightest boxes.
Blake CorumNYG at LARMonday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET Corum averaged 43.9 rushing yards a game last season, already right around this number. The model has him handling only about 35% of the Rams' carries, well behind lead back Kyren Williams, which caps his rushing ceiling. Against a leaky Giants run defense, that workload gap matters more than the matchup does.
Jaxson DartNYG at LARMonday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET Dart ran for 34.8 rushing yards a game last season. The model's hook is that the Rams keep just 6.4 men in the box, one of the softest fronts in the league. That's room to work for a quarterback who's already shown he'll use his legs.
Kyren WilliamsNYG at LARMonday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET Williams caught just 2.1 passes a game last season, already south of this line. New York's pass defense is a tougher unit than its record suggests. The model likes this under more than the market currently does.
Both teams opened Week 1 in opposite directions: New York knocked off Dallas 28-20, while Los Angeles dropped its home opener to San Francisco 27-7. Monday is Aaron Donald's first game back for the Rams, though their defense is still without Myles Garrett on injured reserve and safety Kamren Kinchens, and the Giants list cornerback Deonte Banks as questionable. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium.
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