Saturday Night MLB Intel
Not a huge slate to chew on tonight, but three props stand out where the model's split from the market feels real. Dylan Beavers and Walker Jenkins are both cold enough that betting against their power and contact makes plain sense, while Jake Bauers gets a shot to snap back into the box score against Cincinnati. Start with Jenkins, who's basically fallen off a cliff at the plate the last week and a half.
Dylan BeaversBAL @ TOR · Rogers Centre3:07 PM ET Beavers is hitting .237 over his last 10 games, and that includes just one homer and seven RBI in that stretch. This isn't a guy running hot who's due to keep the runs coming, it's a hitter in a modest slump getting matched with a number that assumes more offensive impact than his recent output supports. The Orioles are on the road at Toronto tonight, and there's nothing in his last 10 games to suggest a sudden power surge is imminent.
Walker JenkinsCLE @ MIN · Target Field4:10 PM ET Jenkins is 2-for-28 over his last 10 games. That's a .071 clip, about as clear a cold stretch as you'll find on the board tonight. The Twins host Cleveland this afternoon, and until Jenkins shows some life at the plate, betting he goes hitless again is the play the model is backing hard at 97 EP Score.
Jake BauersCIN @ MIL · American Family Field7:10 PM ET Bauers has actually shown some thump in his last 10 games, two home runs and four RBI, even if the overall average sits at .208 on a 5-for-24 mark. That kind of power output mixed with a modest average is exactly the profile where a bounce-back single or two makes sense, and the projection here likes his floor of getting at least one hit tonight against Cincinnati. Milwaukee hosts the Reds at American Family Field, and Bauers just needs one knock to cash this.
Two of the three plays tonight are built around real cold streaks, Beavers and Jenkins both scuffling over their last 10 games, while Bauers is the lone bounce-back bet on the slate. Worth noting the power numbers for Bauers, two homers in his last 10, give him a bit more margin than a pure batting-average play would.
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