Sunday NFL Intel

Love threw for 3,381 yards last season with Green Bay, which works out to 225.4 per game, comfortably under the 239.5 number he's being asked to clear here. Minnesota allowed just 158.5 passing yards per game in 2025, the second-fewest mark in the league, and held opponents to 0.9 passing touchdowns a game. Historically, Week 1 passing unders have hit 67% of the time from 2023-25, and the model's read leans on that same tendency here. Love's per-game average from last season sits well below this line, and he's facing a defense that made life miserable on opposing passers all year.

Stroud threw for 19 touchdowns across 14 games last season with Houston, which works out to 1.4 a game, so this line isn't asking for much of a step back. Buffalo allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league in 2025 and just 1.1 passing touchdowns a game, which is about as tough a season-opening draw as a passer can get. The model also leans on a simple Week 1 trend: passing unders have hit 67% of the time in the 2023-25 openers, and Stroud's own profile, a deep-ball rate of just 11% last season, fits a game plan built more on efficiency than explosive strikes.

Jackson averaged 23.2 pass attempts a game across 13 starts last season with Baltimore, and even the model's fuller 2025 read has him at 25.5, both well short of the 27.5 he's being asked to clear here. Indianapolis gave up 247.9 passing yards per game in 2025, the second-most in the league, which is the argument against, but this number is about volume rather than yards, and Jackson simply doesn't throw it 28 times very often. The model's read leans on the same Week 1 tendency as the two picks above: passing unders have hit 67% of the time in the 2023-25 openers, and this line sits a few attempts above where his own average lands.