Friday Night MLB Intel

Cavalli has been arguably the best strikeout arm in baseball over his last five outings, running a 1.20 ERA while racking up 44 strikeouts in that stretch. That's a huge sample of swing-and-miss stuff to lean on, and it's what makes the 6.5 number tonight feel light. He gets the Angels at Nationals Park in a 6:45 PM ET first pitch, and the model's got him projected for 7.0, half a strikeout clear of the line. When a guy's missing bats at that rate over five straight starts, you ride it until it stops.

DeLauter's been productive, 14-for-36 over his last 10 games for a .389 average with a homer and 3 RBI mixed in. But total bases is a different animal than batting average, and the projection here sits at 1.1, comfortably under the 1.5 line despite the hot stretch. Contact hitters racking up empty bases can still clear this number game to game, and the model likes the under here at -148 as CLE heads to Target Field. Sometimes the guy hitting .389 is still the right side of the under.

PCA's last 10 games show 10-for-39, a .256 clip, with 3 home runs and 6 RBI mixed in, a stretch that's had some pop but not enough sustained damage to clear a combined homer/run number of 2.5 with regularity. The projection lands at 2.0, half a run under the line, and at -150 the number reflects a hitter who's shown flashes but not the kind of everyday production that stacks homers and runs together. Wrigley Field hosts the Cubs against Pittsburgh this afternoon at 2:20 PM ET, and the under here is about PCA's recent output not matching this line's demands.