Thursday Night NFL Intel
The EP Model got off to a hot start last night going 4-2 on 90+ Scores. That's +2.1u, a 67% hit rate and 35% ROI. Newsletter picks went 2-1 with AJ Barner finishing one reception short.
San Francisco showed up in Melbourne more than a week early to beat the 17-hour time change. The Rams planned to land just before kickoff. Aaron Donald, unretired after two and a half years away, isn't walking through that door either, reports say he's staying stateside while Myles Garrett debuts for the Rams. Brock Purdy and Puka Nacua carry this one into history as the first NFL regular-season game ever played in Australia.
Brock PurdySF at LARThursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET Purdy threw for 240.8 yards per game with San Francisco last season, which puts this line right at his ceiling before you even account for the opponent. The Rams held teams to 216.7 passing yards per game last year, 14th-most allowed in the league, so it's not a shutdown unit, but it's not generous either. Christian Kirk is on injured reserve and George Kittle's workload is uncertain as he works back from an Achilles injury, per reporting, and that thins out Purdy's options in his first game action.
Terrance FergusonSF at LARThursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET Ferguson caught 11 passes on 25 targets with the Rams last season, including 3 touchdowns. San Francisco allowed 232.4 passing yards per game a year ago, 8th-most in the league, and that's the kind of secondary that lets a tight end eat underneath. Week 1 receiving unders have actually hit more often than not historically, but the model still likes Ferguson clearing this number.
Puka NacuaSF at LARThursday, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET Nacua only carried the ball 10 times last season, but he made them count, 105 yards at 10.5 per carry. San Francisco's run defense ranked 11th-fewest in yards allowed a year ago, so it's not a soft target, but it doesn't take much volume to clear 2.5 yards on an explosive-play profile like this. Nacua avoided the Rams' Tuesday injury report after dealing with a core issue and is expected to play his usual role, per reporting.
The Rams are favored by 3.5 with a 48 total, and last season's numbers back the shootout lean, LAR scored 30.5 points per game while San Francisco put up 25.7. Historically, Week 1 passing unders have hit 67% of the time (2023-25), which lines up with the Purdy play here. San Francisco is dealing with Kirk and Mykel Williams both out, while the Rams are missing Donald for non-injury reasons. Kickoff is 8:35 PM ET at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on NFLX.
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