Wednesday Night MLB Intel
Coors Field always finds its way into these newsletters, and tonight it's Pete Alonso getting the call in an Orioles lineup that travels well to altitude. Meanwhile in Washington, Drake Baldwin's been on a tear that actually works against him in a specific way, and Davis Martin takes the mound carrying a strikeout rate that's cratered right along with his ERA. Three very different stories, three EP Scores sitting right at the top of the board.
Pete AlonsoBAL @ COL · Coors Field3:10 PM ET Alonso's been quietly scuffling by his own standards, just 9-for-37 over his last 10 games, but two of those hits left the yard and he's driven in 6. That kind of quiet stretch for a power bat is exactly the setup for a total bases night, especially somewhere the ball travels. The projection here sits at 1.9 on a 1.5 line, and at -137 this is the type of number where you're just betting a professional slugger to have one good swing.
Drake BaldwinATL @ WSH · Nationals Park1:05 PM ET Baldwin is hitting the ball everywhere right now, 15-for-40 (.375) over his last 10 games with a homer and 6 RBI, which sounds like a reason to fade an under. But hits and runs allowed is a pitching-side number in this context, and the model has him projected at 2.0 against a 2.5 line regardless of how hot his bat is running. ATL is on the road at Nationals Park tonight, first pitch 1:05 PM ET, and at -135 this is a case where the recent form is real but doesn't actually push against the number being bet.
Davis Martin Martin's last five outings have been rough, a 9.95 ERA with only 14 strikeouts in that stretch, and when a pitcher's getting hit around like that, the swings-and-misses tend to dry up too. Hitters are putting bats on the ball early and often against him instead of chasing. The projection lands at 3.3 against this 3.5 line, tight but pointed the right way at -113.
Elite Picks is a research and analytics platform. We do not accept wagers. All content is for informational and research purposes.