Perfect 90+ Scores + 3-Game Win Streak Heading Into Game 1
Tuesday night and we're on a ROLL.
The EP Model went perfect across the board for all 90+ scores in last night's SA @ OKC game, and our curated picks are now riding a three-game win streak after Wembanyama and Castle both crushed their lines. Tonight we're back in Cleveland for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, where the Cavaliers host the Knicks in what should be a physical, high-stakes opener. Mitchell's been here before and the model loves his spot, while Mobley's two-way dominance in Game 7 sets him up for another big night against Towns and the Knicks frontcourt. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Donovan Mitchell Mitchell dropped 26 in Sunday's Game 7 win over Detroit and now gets a Knicks defense that ranks 7th against shooting guards, allowing 29.9 PPG to the position. We're projecting 30.4 for a +3.9 edge at 99 EP Score. He averaged 27.9 points per game during the regular season and enters this series healthy with no injury concerns after one day of rest. The Cavaliers are 7-point favorites at home in an 8:00 PM tip at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, and Mitchell's usage (32.4%) and efficiency (58.0% true shooting) both support him exceeding this modest line in a Conference Finals opener.
Evan Mobley Mobley put up 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists in Game 7 against Detroit—39 combined P+R+A, well above tonight's line. We're projecting 29.3 for a +1.8 edge at 93 EP Score. He's averaged 29.1 P+R+A per game this postseason, and the Knicks allow 34.6 to power forwards (7th-most permissive). Mobley and Jarrett Allen will need to be at their best against Karl-Anthony Towns in this matchup, and his recent playoff form shows multiple games above 30 combined (35 in Game 5, 30 in Game 4). Cleveland's 7-point spread suggests a competitive game where Mobley's two-way impact will be needed throughout.
Watch List
Karl-Anthony Towns u4.5 AST. Projects at 3.5 against a Cleveland defense that allows 3.0 assists to centers (19th). The model likes the under with a +1.0 edge at 98 EP Score, but Towns has averaged 7.2 assists in his last 5 games and has dished out at least six dimes in seven straight contests. His recent facilitating spike (10, 7, 7, 6, 10 in his last five playoff games) directly contradicts both his 3.0 season average and the projection. Matchup data supports the under, recent form screams over.
James Harden o25.5 P+A. Projects at 30.6 for a +5.1 edge at 94 EP Score, but his last 5 games tell a different story—he’s averaged just 24.8 P+A during that stretch, below even the line itself. He leads Cleveland in playoff assists (87) and the Cavs have outscored opponents by 62 points in 524 playoff minutes with him on the floor, but the Knicks rank 3rd-toughest against point guards and Harden’s recent cold streak is hard to ignore. Projection says over, recent reality says caution.
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