EP Model 71% on Game 7. Two Spurs Props Tonight with 99 & 93 Scores
Happy Monday. Let's start the week right.
The EP Model went lights out last night on Game 7, hitting 71% overall on 90+ EP Scores, 80% on Top 10 scores, and sweeping PTS, PRA, REB, and Unders for +5u on the Top 10 alone. Tonight we're riding that momentum into the Western Conference Finals opener with two Spurs who've been absolutely cooking in the playoffs: Wembanyama coming off a series-clinching performance and Castle fresh off a 49 P+R+A explosion. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Victor Wembanyama Wemby closed out Minnesota with 19 points in just 27 minutes Friday, but his recent playoff run tells the real story: 39 points in Game 3, 27 and 17 boards in Game 5, and a season average of 25.0 that already clears this line. We're projecting 28.2 for a +3.7 edge at 99 EP Score. Oklahoma City ranks 5th toughest against centers at 14.5 points allowed, but Wembanyama's 32.6% usage rate and 62.6% true shooting percentage make him matchup-proof, and the Spurs will lean on him heavily in Game 1 of the Conference Finals. This is a major stage where he's elevated his game all postseason.
Stephon Castle Castle just dropped 49 P+R+A in Game 6 (32 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists), and his last five playoff games read like a highlight reel: 49, 30, 29, 29, 27. Projecting 30.3 against the 28.5 line for a +1.8 edge at 93 EP Score. Yes, Oklahoma City ranks #1 defensively against point guards, but Castle's recent form has been too hot to fade—his season average sits at 29.4, and he's been the Spurs' second engine all playoffs. One day of rest, healthy, and riding serious momentum into the Conference Finals opener.
Key Context
Both Spurs are healthy and rested heading into Game 1. San Antonio is favored by 6.5 with a 221.5 total, suggesting a pace-up environment that should support volume for their two primary options. Oklahoma City’s elite perimeter defense hasn’t slowed Castle’s recent tear, and Wembanyama’s versatility makes him difficult to scheme against even for top-ranked defenses.
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