Perfect Monday + Three 97+ EP Score Plays Tonight

Castle has been everywhere for San Antonio in this series, averaging 33.6 P+R+A over his last five games with at least 15 points and five assists in six straight. We're projecting 31.4 for a +2.9 edge at 99 EP Score. Minnesota allows 42.4 P+R+A to opposing shooting guards (6th-most in the league), and this series has been high-paced and high-scoring with a 219 total tonight. Castle is starting at point guard in an elimination game on the road with 25.1% usage and two days rest. The Spurs need him to do everything to extend this series.

Mitchell has been nuclear against Detroit, scoring at least 31 points in three straight games including a 43-point, 2-assist performance (45 P+A) in Game 4 on Monday. We're projecting 34.7 for a +4.2 edge at 99 EP Score. Detroit ranks 2nd-toughest defensively against shooting guards but still allows 36.0 P+A to the position, and Mitchell is operating at 32.4% usage with 61.3% true shooting in this series. Cleveland is home on a back-to-back looking to close out the series at Rocket Arena where they're 6-0 this postseason. He's cleared this line in three of four games this series, and the volume isn't going anywhere in a potential clincher.

Harden is fully healthy with the hand injury concerns from earlier in the series resolved, and he posted 24 points and 11 assists in Game 4. We're projecting 30.7 for a +4.2 edge at 97 EP Score. Detroit's defense ranks 2nd-toughest against point guards but allows 28.0 P+A to the position, and Harden is running 27.7% usage with 61.0% true shooting in this playoff run. Cleveland is home on a back-to-back with a chance to close out the series, and Harden's season average of 31.6 P+A sits well above tonight's line. The model sees a substantial edge here despite Detroit's perimeter defense.