EP Model 3-0 on 90-94 Scores | Mitchell, Mobley, Allen Tonight
What's up, Wednesday.
We're 4-2 on curated picks this week after a subpar 1-2 night, despite the EP Model having a good night overall. Tonight we're locked in on Cleveland's home dominance in a pivotal Game 5. Mitchell's been nuclear in this series, Mobley's stuffing the stat sheet against a Detroit defense that bleeds production to bigs, and Allen's rebounding against the third-worst center defense in the league. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Donovan Mitchell Mitchell has hit 30+ points in three straight games against Detroit, including 43 in Game 4 and 35 in Game 3. We're projecting 34.7 for a +4.2 edge at 99 EP Score. Detroit ranks dead last against shooting guards, allowing 36.0 P+A to the position, and Mitchell's usage rate sits at 32.4% in a series where Cleveland needs him to close things out at home. The Cavs are 6-0 at home these playoffs.
Evan Mobley Mobley posted 30 combined in Game 4 (17-8-5) and 25 in Game 3 (13-8-4), consistently hitting this range against Detroit. We're projecting 29.7 for a +3.2 edge at 96 EP Score. Detroit ranks 12th defensively against power forwards, allowing 34.7 P+R+A to the position, and Mobley's season average of 30.8 sits comfortably above the line. He's been a steady 25-30 producer in this matchup with Cleveland looking to advance at home.
Jarrett Allen Allen grabbed 19 boards in Game 7 against Toronto and has averaged 8.0 rebounds over his last five games. We're projecting 8.2 for a +1.7 edge at 92 EP Score. Detroit ranks third-worst in opponent center rebounding defense, allowing 10.4 per game to the position, and Allen's 8.5 season average clears this threshold easily. He's healthy, active, and playing heavy minutes in a Game 5 where Cleveland controls the glass.
Watch List
Tobias Harris u18.5 PTS. Projects at 16.3 against Cleveland’s 18th-ranked defense vs. power forwards. Harris has scored 20+ in eight straight playoff games but shot just 6-17 in Game 4 for 16 points. The projection sits only +2.2 above the line at 97 EP Score, and his regular-season average was 13.3 PPG. Playoff surge vs. recent cold shooting makes this one to monitor, not bet.
Tobias Harris u25.5 P+R. Projects at 22.1 with a +3.4 edge at 92 EP Score. Harris hit 26+ P+R in three of his last four games but fell to 24 in the most recent contest. His season average is 18.4 P+R, well below the line, though playoff usage has been elevated. Cleveland’s neutral matchup (18th vs. PFs) and the narrow projection make this a watch, not a play.
Key Context
Cleveland is 6-0 at home these playoffs and looking to close out Detroit in Game 5. Mitchell and Mobley have been the primary engines, with Allen dominating the glass against a Detroit frontcourt that ranks bottom-five in rebounding defense. All three props target Cleveland’s home strength in a series where they’ve controlled pace and usage.
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