EP Model Perfect on Monday. Three More Plays Tonight from WCF.

Caruso hit 8-of-14 from three and dropped 31 points in Game 1's double-overtime loss to San Antonio on Monday. That was a career night for a guy averaging 6.2 points and 0.9 threes per game this season. We're projecting 1.5 threes for a +1.0 edge at 100 EP Score. He played 32 minutes because of the extra periods, but he's back in his normal bench role tonight with no injury concerns. San Antonio allows 3.0 threes to small forwards (12th defensively), but that doesn't change the math when you're chasing an outlier this extreme.

Harper grabbed 11 boards in Game 1 after starting 47 minutes with De'Aaron Fox sidelined. That was his third double-digit rebounding game this postseason, but Fox is expected back for Game 2, which sends Harper to the bench. We're projecting 3.3 rebounds for a +1.2 edge at 99 EP Score. His season average is 3.4 boards, and while he's averaging 5.6 in the playoffs, that number is inflated by elevated minutes when starting. OKC ranks first defensively against point guards, and Harper's projected 28 minutes align with his typical bench rotation.

Wembanyama dropped 41 points and 24 rebounds in Game 1 against Oklahoma City, and he's fully healthy heading into Game 2 with one day of rest. We're projecting 27.9 points for a +3.4 edge at 98 EP Score. His 25.0 season average undersells what he's doing right now with a 32.6% usage rate and 62.6% true shooting percentage. San Antonio won four of five regular-season meetings against OKC, and Wembanyama is in elite form. The Thunder rank 5th defensively against centers, but that hasn't slowed him down.