2-1 Night Keeps Streak Alive, Three Playoff Props Tonight
Happy Friday, let's close the week strong.
We went 2-1 last night to keep the momentum rolling, and the EP Model crushed assists at 67% while hitting 62% on props in the 90-95 EP Score range. Tonight we've got three playoff props with serious edges: Towns facing a rebounding ceiling against Philly's league-average defense, Conley's bench role shrinking with Minnesota's guards healthy, and Castle riding a postseason hot streak into a Game 3 matchup. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Karl-Anthony Towns Towns has been inconsistent on the glass in this series, posting just 10 rebounds in Game 2 and only 6 in Game 1 against Philadelphia. We're projecting 10.8 for a +1.2 edge at 100 EP Score. Philadelphia ranks 14th defending centers on the boards—league average resistance—and Towns' season average of 11.9 sits right at the line. His recent five-game stretch averaged 12.6, but that includes games against softer opponents, and this specific matchup has already produced two games under 12 boards.
Mike Conley Conley averaged just 2.9 assists in 18.4 minutes per game this season, well below the 3.5 line. We're projecting 2.9 for a +0.6 edge at 99 EP Score. With Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu both healthy tonight, Conley's bench role shrinks further despite his 6-assist Game 1 performance. His 11.6% usage rate and limited floor time make this a volume play—San Antonio allows 7.0 assists to point guards, but Conley simply doesn't have the minutes or touches to consistently clear 3.5 from the second unit.
Stephon Castle Castle has been on fire this postseason, averaging 33.5 combined over his last five games and scoring at least 15 points in all but one playoff contest. We're projecting 30.0 for a +2.5 edge at 98 EP Score. In Game 2 he posted 21 points with four rebounds and four assists in just 24 minutes, and Game 1 saw him total exactly 27 P+R+A. Minnesota's defense ranks 6th against shooting guards, but Castle's usage and efficiency have been elite—he's contributing across all categories and the Spurs need him to produce with the series tied 1-1.
Watch List
Victor Wembanyama o25.5 PTS. Projects at 29.5 against Minnesota’s 15th-ranked center defense. The model loves it at 100 EP Score, but Wemby averaged just 19.0 points over his last five games and scored only 11 in Game 1 of this series on 5-17 shooting. He bounced back with 19 in Game 2, but that came in limited minutes during a blowout. Minnesota’s found defensive answers, and recent form doesn’t support clearing 25.5 despite the strong projection.
Josh Hart u9.5 REB. Projects at 7.2 with Hart questionable due to a left thumb sprain from Game 2. He returned after being taped and played 44 minutes, but a thumb injury affects rebounding grip. Posted 8 and 7 rebounds in the first two games of this series—right on the borderline. If he plays, the injury risk and recent form favor the under, but the questionable tag makes this too uncertain for a main play.
Paul George o25.5 P+R+A. Projects at 28.8 with the Sixers returning home down 0-2. George has combined for just 22.5 per game in this series (29 P+R+A in Game 2, 23 in Game 1), and the Knicks shut him down in the second half of Game 2. Home court should drive urgency, but his recent form against this specific opponent contradicts the projection.
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