EP Model 80% Last Night, Three More Plays Tonight
Happy Thursday. Let's keep it rolling.
The EP Model cashed 4 of its top 5 scores last night (80%), and our curated picks went 2-1 to keep the momentum going. Tonight we're riding three high-conviction plays in the conference semifinals: Mitchell gets a dream matchup against Detroit's porous perimeter defense, Duren is trending up at home after back-to-back double-doubles, and Smart's elevated playoff role has him clearing this assists line with ease. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Donovan Mitchell Mitchell averaged 27.9 points during the regular season and the model projects 29.1 against a 25-point line—that's a +4.1 edge at 99 EP Score. Detroit ranks second-worst defending shooting guards, allowing 29.7 points to the position, and Mitchell carries a 32.4% usage rate with elite 61.3% true shooting. He's been cold in the playoffs lately (averaging 21.6 over his last five), but this is the exact matchup to break out of it.
Jalen Duren Duren posted 27 combined in Game 1 against Cleveland (11 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists) and is building momentum after back-to-back double-doubles. We're projecting 31.6 for a +3.1 edge at 98 EP Score. Cleveland ranks 19th defending centers and allows 30.3 P+R+A to the position, a neutral-to-favorable matchup for a home Game 2. His recent five-game average is depressed by first-round struggles against Orlando, but he's clearly trending upward now.
Marcus Smart Smart dropped 7 dimes in Game 1 and has hit 7 or 10 assists in each of his last three playoff games. We're projecting 4.6 for a +1.1 edge at 92 EP Score. He's averaging 5.7 assists through seven playoff games, well above his 3.0 regular-season mark, as his playmaking role has expanded with Luka dealing with injury issues. OKC ranks first defending point guards, but Smart's elevated usage in the postseason has him clearing this line comfortably.
Key Context
All three plays are home teams in Game 2 scenarios where role clarity is established. Mitchell’s matchup against Detroit’s second-worst SG defense is the cleanest setup of the night. Duren’s recent form (back-to-back double-doubles) suggests he’s shaken off his first-round rust.
Watch List
Austin Reaves o22.5 P+R. Projects at 28.0 with a +5.5 edge, but he’s shooting 33.3% over his first two games back from a nine-game oblique injury absence. He went 3-16 in Game 1 against this same OKC defense. The projection loves it, but the rust is real and OKC ranks 9th defending shooting guards. Matchup’s tough, timing’s questionable.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander u36.5 P+A. Projects at 28.7 for a +7.8 edge on the under, and he posted just 24 P+A in Game 1 (18 points, 6 assists) when OKC won by 18. His last five games average 33.8 P+A, below both his season mark and the line. With OKC favored by 15.5 again, another blowout could limit his ceiling. The under case is there, but betting against SGA in the playoffs feels dangerous.
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