Model Crushes 61% on 90+ EP Scores, Three Playoff Plays Tonight
Happy Wednesday. Let's keep it rolling.
The EP Model crushed it last night, 61% on 90+ EP Scores, 80% on unders, and went perfect on assists and threes. Tonight we're riding that momentum with three playoff props that check every box: Randle in a high-usage spot against San Antonio, Hart on a back-to-back where his peripheral production stays suppressed, and Bridges finding his playmaking groove at home. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Julius Randle Randle just posted 33 combined in Monday's Game 1 against San Antonio — 21 points, 10 boards, 2 assists across 41 minutes. That workload isn't changing with Anthony Edwards on a minutes restriction and Minnesota needing offensive production. We're projecting 32.5 for a +3.0 edge at 100 EP Score. San Antonio ranks 6th toughest against power forwards but still allows 37.5 P+R+A to the position, and Randle's recent playoff form has been elite: 42 combined in Game 5 against Denver, 39 in Game 2. He's the primary engine in this offense right now.
Josh Hart Hart put up 22 combined in Monday's Game 1 — 8 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists — and we're projecting 23.5 on a 26 line for a +2.5 edge at 99 EP Score. This is a back-to-back for New York, and Hart's offensive role has been minimal in the playoffs: 37% from the field, 15.8% from three, focused primarily on defense and rebounding. His season average sits at 24.2 P+R+A, and Philadelphia's middle-of-the-pack defense against power forwards doesn't create a matchup advantage. The back-to-back factor on the road further suppresses his counting stats.
Mikal Bridges Bridges posted 7 combined in Monday's Game 1 — two rebounds and five assists — and we're projecting 9.3 for a +3.8 edge at 90 EP Score. He's been finding his playmaking rhythm at home, dishing five dimes in Game 1 after logging three assists in the Hawks closeout. Philadelphia ranks 21st defensively against shooting guards, and Bridges' season average of 7.5 R+A gives him comfortable cushion over this line. The peripheral production has been volatile throughout the playoffs, but his recent two-game stretch shows 7 and 8 combined, and the matchup supports another over.
Watch List
Jalen Brunson u33.5 P+A. Projects at 29.9 against Philadelphia’s 6th-ranked point guard defense (allowing just 30.6 P+A). He dropped 38 combined in Monday’s Game 1, but this is a back-to-back and his season average is 32.8. The model sees a +3.6 edge on the under, but his recent five-game average of 36.0 P+A creates conflicting signals.
Jalen Brunson u27 PTS. Projects at 23.5 with a +3.5 edge, but Brunson just scored 35 in Game 1 and is averaging 40.8 points in his last four playoff games against Philadelphia. The back-to-back and Philly’s elite PG defense (allowing just 22.7 PPG) support the under, but his recent form is scorching hot. Too much variance to trust.
Paul George o20.5 P+R. Projects at 24.3 for a +3.8 edge against New York’s 7th-ranked defense at the position. George posted 20 combined in Monday’s Game 1 but has averaged just 18.8 P+R over his last five games. The model likes the matchup, but his recent underperformance and the back-to-back factor create uncertainty.
Tyrese Maxey u30.5 P+A. Projects at 28.5 with a +2.0 edge. Maxey averaged 33.4 P+A over his last five games but managed just 15 combined in Monday’s Game 1 (13 points, 2 assists). He’s dealing with a right finger tendon strain and playing on a back-to-back after a grueling seven-game series. New York’s elite PG defense held him in check once already — the under has merit, but the injury and fatigue factors make this a watch-and-see.
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