EP Model Crushes 90+ Unders (69%) & Rebound Props (83%), Three Plays Tonight
Happy Friday, let's close the week strong.
We went 1-2 last night, but the EP Model keeps crushing in its sweet spots, 69% on 90+ EP Score unders and 83% on rebounds props. Check out the new Model Trends feature so you can see for yourself where the models are excelling.
Tonight we're riding that wave with three playoff props where the model sees clear edges: Mitchell in an elimination-game spot against Toronto's leaky SG defense, Bane taking on expanded usage with Franz Wagner out, and Eason feasting on the glass in a back-to-back where Houston needs every possession. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Donovan Mitchell Mitchell has been nuclear in this series, dropping 30-plus in both Games 1 and 2 and averaging 41.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists over his last five. We're projecting 39.3 for a +3.8 edge at 99 EP Score. Toronto ranks third-worst defending shooting guards at 43.0 P+R+A allowed, and Cleveland's on the road in Game 3 needing Mitchell to carry the offense with 32.4% usage. His 61.3% true shooting means he's not just forcing it — he's efficient. Strong over.
Desmond Bane Bane's been Orlando's engine in this Detroit series, averaging 25.5 points and 7.5 boards through four games with totals of 33 and 28 in his last two outings. We're at 30.0 projected against a 26.5 line, that's a +3.5 edge at 95 EP Score. Franz Wagner's out again tonight, pushing Bane into even heavier offensive responsibility as the primary option. Detroit's the second-toughest SG defense on paper, but Bane's 60.7% true shooting shows he's solving it, and Orlando's riding an 11-3 run in this matchup. Strong over.
Tari Eason Eason's been a rebounding machine lately, averaging 7.6 boards over his last five and posting 8, 5, and 8 in his last three playoff games against the Lakers. We're projecting 8.5 for a +2.0 edge at 93 EP Score — right in the model's wheelhouse where it's hitting 83% on rebounds props. The Lakers allow 7.9 boards to opposing shooting guards (11th-ranked defense), and Eason's getting 32 projected minutes on a back-to-back where Houston needs every possession in this elimination game. His 6.3 season average undersells what he's doing right now. Strong over.
Key Context
The EP Model is red-hot on 90+ EP Score unders (69% last night) and rebounds props (83% last night) — check out Model Trends in the app to see where the edges are sharpest. Tonight’s slate leans heavily on playoff intensity, with elimination stakes in Detroit-Orlando and series-defining moments in Cleveland-Toronto. Back-to-backs factor into two of our plays, but the matchup advantages and recent form override the fatigue concerns.
Watch List
LeBron James u22.5 PTS. Projects at 19.8 against Houston’s #1-ranked power forward defense (toughest in the league). He’s been wildly inconsistent in this series — 25, 10, 29, 28, 19 — and tonight’s a back-to-back for a 41-year-old managing a foot issue. The model likes the under at 97 EP Score, but that Game 4 dud (10 points) sits next to three games well over the line. Volatility keeps this on the watch list.
Austin Reaves u23.5 PTS. Projects at 21.7 in his second game back from a month-long oblique strain. He cleared his playoff debut in Game 5 but may still be on a minutes leash, and tonight’s a back-to-back. Houston’s 10th-ranked SG defense is middling, and his 23.3 season average sits right at the line. The under has a +1.8 edge at 96 EP Score, but the return-from-injury context and back-to-back timing make it tough to trust fully.
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