EP Model Hits 80% on Saturday. Two Sharp Plays for Monday Night.
Monday night and we're rolling. The EP Model crushed Saturday night, hitting 80% on its Top 10 picks and 75% overall on 90+ scores, momentum we're carrying into tonight's playoff slate. We've got two sharp plays in the second round: Conley's minutes crunch in Minnesota and Edgecombe's playmaking surge for Philly. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
VJ Edgecombe Edgecombe averaged just 3.0 assists through seven first-round games, but he's shown flashes — 5 dimes in Game 3, 4 in Game 7 against Boston. We're projecting 5.4 against a 3.5 line for a +1.9 edge at 95 EP Score. New York ranks 7th-most permissive to shooting guards on assists (6.3 per game), and Edgecombe's 20.2% usage rate keeps the ball in his hands enough to facilitate. He's healthy, coming off 23 points in the clincher, and the matchup sets up perfectly for him to distribute.
Mike Conley Conley averaged 2.9 assists in 18.4 minutes per game this season, and he's listed as a bench player tonight after starting Game 5 out of necessity. We're projecting 2.8 for a +0.7 edge at 99 EP Score. San Antonio allows just 7.0 assists to point guards (9th-toughest defense), and Conley's role off the bench limits his playmaking opportunities compared to his 4.2 assists in starts. Minnesota's up 13 points in the spread, which could mean garbage time eats into his minutes even further.
Watch List
Jalen Brunson u27.5 PTS. Projects at 24.1 against Philly’s 6th-toughest PG defense (22.7 PPG allowed). He just dropped 39 in Game 5, but he’s averaged 28.2 over his last five and the ankle issue from mid-April lingers in the back of my mind. The model likes the under by +3.4, but his recent hot streak and 30.6% usage rate at home make this one to monitor rather than bet.
Josh Hart u8.5 REB. Projects at 7.1 with a +1.4 edge. He’s averaged just 6.8 boards over his last five games and dealt with a back contusion heading into Game 6 last week. Philly ranks 23rd defending power forwards (10.5 RPG allowed), so the matchup’s there, but his recent form and the injury concern keep this off the main card.
Key Context
Minnesota’s 13-point spread suggests blowout risk for Conley’s minutes. Philly’s 7.5-point underdog role could force Edgecombe into higher usage if the game stays competitive. Both props benefit from clear role definition — Conley’s bench minutes are capped, Edgecombe’s starting role is locked in.
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