EP Model 60% Hot, Three Playoff Plays Tonight
Thursday night playoff hoops, let's get it.
The EP Model bounced back with a clean 60% hit rate on 90+ EP Scores last night, and we're locked in on three playoff spots where the numbers and matchups align. Jalen Johnson facing elimination at home with a 20-point R+A projection against a 15.5 line, Derrick White getting assists against a Philly defense that bleeds them to point guards, and Julius Randle trending under on boards despite a favorable matchup. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Jalen Johnson Johnson finished Game 5 with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists—that's 16 R+A right there, and he's been consistently crushing this number all series with 34 in Game 3 and 25 in Game 2. We're projecting 20.0 for a +4.5 edge at 99 EP Score. The Hawks trail 3-2 and face elimination at home, which means maximum usage for their All-Star forward who's averaging 10.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists on the season. New York ranks 7th in defense against power forwards, middle of the pack, and Johnson's 27.2% usage rate in this series has been elite.
Derrick White White's season average sits at 5.4 assists, and we're projecting 5.9 against a 3.5 line—that's a +2.4 edge at 96 EP Score. Philadelphia ranks 6th in defense against point guards, which actually means they allow more assists (7.9 per game to the position), and White's 22.2% usage rate as Boston's starting point guard gives him plenty of playmaking opportunities. He hit exactly 3 assists in Games 2 and 4, so there's some recent variance, but the broader season trend and this matchup heavily favor the over. Boston's up 3-2 and looking to close out on the road, which should keep White's minutes and involvement high.
Julius Randle Randle's averaging just 6.6 rebounds over his last five games, and the model projects 6.3 against a 7.5 line for a +1.2 edge at 93 EP Score. His season average of 6.7 boards sits comfortably below the number, and while he grabbed 9 in Game 5, that's been the exception rather than the rule lately. Denver ranks 24th defensively against power forwards (allowing 9.7 rebounds), but Randle plays alongside Rudy Gobert, who vacuums up boards and limits Randle's opportunities on the glass. Minnesota's shorthanded with Edwards and DiVincenzo out, which could push Randle into more offensive possessions and fewer rebounding chances.
Key Context
All three props tonight come from playoff elimination scenarios where usage and intensity are maxed out. Johnson and White both benefit from favorable defensive matchups at their positions, while Randle’s rebounding has been consistently trending below the line despite a theoretically soft matchup. The back-to-back factor for Atlanta hasn’t slowed Johnson’s minutes or production in this series.
Watch List
Ayo Dosunmu u28.5 P+R+A. Projects at 24.8 against a 28.5 line with 95 EP Score. The model likes the under, but Dosunmu was just added to the injury report with right calf soreness ahead of Game 6. He posted 25 combined P+R+A in Game 5 after exploding for 43 points in Game 4, and Denver clearly adjusted defensively. If he’s healthy and plays, the under has merit—but the calf injury makes this a true game-time decision with too much uncertainty to feature as a main play.
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