statistical
Usage Rate
Also known as: USG%, Usage Percentage
Usage rate is the percentage of a team's offensive possessions that end with a given player's shot attempt, free throw trip, or turnover while that player is on the floor. It quantifies how central a player is to the team's offense.
Usage rate measures offensive involvement. Five players are on the floor, so the league average usage rate is exactly 20%. Star scorers run 28-35%. Role players run 14-18%. A player’s usage tells you how often they touch the ball with intent to score, and is therefore one of the strongest single inputs into projecting player props.
Formula: USG% = 100 × ((FGA + 0.44 × FTA + TOV) × (Team Minutes / 5)) / (Minutes × (Team FGA + 0.44 × Team FTA + Team TOV)).
Worked example. A player plays 32 minutes, attempts 18 field goals, takes 6 free throws, and commits 3 turnovers. His team plays 48 minutes total and runs 100 offensive plays. His usage works out to roughly 30%. If his teammate goes down with injury and the team’s other ball-handling options shrink, the projected usage in the next game might jump to 34%, which inflates his expected points, rebound (less), assist, and turnover lines.
Usage interacts with efficiency. A high-usage, high-efficiency player (Jokic, Durant) is offensive gold. A high-usage, low-efficiency player drains team offense. Elite Picks tracks usage at multiple grain levels: season, last 10 games, last 5 games, lineup-specific (with and without certain teammates). When a teammate is ruled out, the model recomputes projected usage for each remaining player based on historical lineups that match the new five-man rotation. This is one of the model’s most important injury-news adjustments.
Usage on its own is not the bet; usage combined with TS% and projected minutes is.
Example
A star scorer with 32% usage takes nearly a third of all shot attempts and turnovers while he's on the floor. League-average usage is 20% (5 players × 20% = 100%).