statistical
True Shooting Percentage
Also known as: TS%, TS
True shooting percentage is a basketball efficiency metric that measures a player's scoring rate per shot attempt, weighting two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws by their relative value. League-average TS% in the NBA hovers around 57%.
True shooting percentage answers the question: how efficient is this player at turning shot attempts into points? Unlike field goal percentage, which treats a three-pointer and a two-pointer as equivalent, TS% prices in the extra point a three is worth and includes free throws in the denominator.
The formula: TS% = points / (2 × (FGA + 0.44 × FTA)). The 0.44 coefficient adjusts for the fact that most free throw trips yield two attempts but some yield one or three, with 0.44 being the historical average attempts-per-trip.
Worked example. Player A goes 10-for-20 from two and 0-for-0 from three, scoring 20 points. Field goal percentage: 50%. TS%: 20 / (2 × 20) = 50%. Player B goes 5-for-15 from three, scoring 15 points. Field goal percentage: 33%. TS%: 15 / (2 × 15) = 50%. Despite Player B having a much worse-looking FG%, both shot at identical efficiency. TS% reveals the equivalence; FG% hides it.
TS% is a building block for projecting player scoring props. A player’s TS% over a recent rolling window, combined with usage rate and projected pace, generates an expected points distribution that can be compared against the prop line. Elite Picks’ NBA models pull TS% across multiple windows (5, 10, 20 games) to detect efficiency trends, since a player whose TS% has jumped from 54% to 62% across the last 10 games is either riding a hot streak about to regress or has genuinely changed their shot profile. The model has to discriminate.
Sample size matters. TS% stabilizes around 150-200 shot attempts. Anything smaller is noise.
Example
A player who scores 30 points on 20 field goal attempts and 8 free throw attempts has TS% = 30 / (2 × (20 + 0.44 × 8)) = 30 / 47.04 = 63.8%, well above league average.