Wednesday Night NBA Intel

Wagner's assist number has been trending the wrong way for an over bettor for a while now. He went under 5.5 in eight of his last ten games last season, and his per-game assist average over his final 25 games last season sat at just 3.2, a far cry from this line. The matchup data backs it up too: he averaged only 2.0 assists across three games against the Hawks last season, and even in his last 13 home games last season he was averaging 3.8. There's a real gap between where Wagner's distributing has lived and where this number is set.

Reaves was putting the ball in motion at a noticeably higher rate late last season, 73 passes a game over his last five outings last season compared to 54 across his last 25. That kind of jump in ball movement can show up in assist totals, and he averaged 5.8 assists in those last five games and 6.0 over his last 13 at home last season. Throw in a track record against Golden State specifically, 6.7 assists per game across three meetings last season, and this looks like a number he's built to clear again. He went over 5.5 in six of his last ten games last season.

Smith cleared 14.5 points plus assists in nine of his last ten games last season. He averaged 19.6 at home last season, and in his last five games overall he was up at 20.0. He's also got a history of producing against Dallas specifically, 18.7 points plus assists per game last season, and the matchup note doesn't hurt either: the Mavericks defense ranked as the 6th-softest unit against power forwards last season. Recent form, home scoring and the matchup all point the same way.