Thursday Night NFL Intel

Dobbins is getting 12.8 carries a game, and by the model's count he is stuffed on just 16% of them, better than the 18% a typical back sees. The yards have lagged the work so far at 45.8 a game, but he ran for 77.2 a game at 5.0 a carry for Denver last season, and the model projects 52.5 tonight. Seattle's run defense is solid at 3.7 yards a carry allowed, 8th-lowest this season, and it plays without linebackers Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt.

Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 583 receiving yards, 116.6 a game, so this line sits more than 20 yards under his pace. He is getting 35% of Seattle's targets, and he led the league with 1,793 receiving yards last season. Denver plays without Patrick Surtain II, its best cover corner, and safety Talanoa Hufanga, and the model projects 99.2 yards. The Broncos have held teams to 202.2 passing yards a game, 9th-fewest, and he is playing through an ankle injury from Sunday.

Darnold is at 188.8 passing yards a game through four games, well under his 238.1 a game last season, so this line asks for a step back toward last year. He is still getting 7.7 yards an attempt; the dip is volume, at 24.5 attempts a game. Denver's defense has also faced 66.4 plays a game, 4th-most in the league. Tonight that defense plays without Surtain and Hufanga, with Moss questionable, and that is the matchup the model leans on to get Darnold past 223.5.