Monday Night NFL Intel
Michael Penix Jr. makes his second start since tearing his ACL, and he's walking into a Saints front seven that's falling apart. New Orleans ruled out three front-seven defenders this week and Pete Werner is questionable after a stinger, per Yahoo Sports. That thins the group trying to slow Bijan Robinson, while Chris Olave gets a clean look at an Atlanta secondary missing A.J. Terrell. New Orleans is favored by 1.5 at home as the city marks the 20th anniversary of the Superdome's post-Katrina reopening against this same rival.
Bijan RobinsonATL at NOMonday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET Robinson is up to 22 carries a game through three games this season, a real jump from his 16.9 a year ago. New Orleans is allowing 4.7 yards a carry this season, 7th-highest in the league, and that number should only get worse against a Saints front missing three defenders. Volume is the whole case here, and Atlanta has no reason to take the ball out of his hands.
Chris OlaveATL at NOMonday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET Olave has 27 catches on 36 targets through three games this season, a full nine catches a game, and he's topped his receptions prop in five straight games. Atlanta is without A.J. Terrell, its top cornerback, and is allowing 263 passing yards a game this season, third-most in the league. The target share is there, the opponent is there, and the matchup only got friendlier with Terrell out.
Drake LondonATL at NOMonday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET London caught 9 passes for 194 yards last week, and he's catching 79% of his targets this season against a league average of 64%, per the model's tracking. That came in Penix's first game back, after London had six catches combined in the two games before it. He's getting open by 3.4 yards of separation on average, above the league mark of 2.9, and that kind of gap tends to show up in the catch total.
New Orleans is 1-2 this season and now leans on Alvin Kamara with Travis Etienne on injured reserve, while Atlanta is also 1-2 but has scored just 17 points a game to New Orleans' 27. Both offenses get to attack banged-up defenses, with A.J. Terrell out for Atlanta and three Saints defenders out up front. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at the Caesars Superdome.
Elite Picks is a research and analytics platform. We do not accept wagers. All content is for informational and research purposes.