Thursday Night MLB Intel

The batting average doesn't jump off the page here, 5-for-28 over his last 10 games, but the 2 homers and 5 RBI in that stretch tell the real story. HRR only needs one hit, one run, or one RBI to cash, and Yastrzemski has been doing damage even in a stretch where the average hasn't been pretty. He's shown he can produce in bursts, and this market only needs one swing to go right.

Nola's been steady lately, a 3.29 ERA with 20 strikeouts over his last five outings, the kind of form that keeps a start under two earned runs more often than not. At even money, this is a clean read on a pitcher who's missing bats and limiting damage. Worth flagging that this one pulls in a different direction than the Yastrzemski over, since Nola's success and a Braves hitter producing aren't mutually exclusive, but both plays stand on their own.

Kerr's been about as tough to hit as any arm in this series matchup, a 0.77 ERA with 6 strikeouts over his last five outings. Limiting hits allowed to one or fewer fits the form he's carried into this start. The projection of 1.3 against a 1.5 line backs the shape of what he's done recently, and at -137 the price reflects how often he's kept hits off the board.