Wednesday Night MLB Intel

Tucker's slash line over his last 10 games is nothing to write home about, just 7-for-32, but buried in that stretch are 3 home runs and 7 RBI. That's the thing about total bases props, you don't need a hot average, you need one loud swing, and Tucker's shown he's still finding barrels even while the average sits down. Half a total base is about as low a bar as this market sets, and a guy hitting for this kind of pop over his last 10 clears it without needing much.

A 5.08 ERA over his last 5 outings isn't a great look, but this prop cares about volume, not runs allowed. Bennett has struck out 28 in that stretch, which tells you he's missing bats, but it also tends to mean deeper counts and shorter outings when the results aren't clean. The projection here sits at 15.9 outs, under the 16.5 line, and a pitcher running a 5-plus ERA in his recent starts isn't the profile you bet to go six full innings on the road.

Wheeler's strikeout total, 35 over his last 5 starts, is the headline here even with a 4.18 ERA sitting next to it. That combination, missing bats at a high rate while the ERA lags a bit, often points to a guy who isn't getting hit hard so much as running into some bad luck or a rough inning here or there. At plus money, the under on hits allowed lines up with a pitcher who's racking up whiffs against Washington tonight.