Tuesday Night MLB Intel
The board tonight is all about ceilings, or the lack of them. Konnor Griffin's cold stretch has him projected under his hard-hit rate line, Sean Manaea's rough last five starts point to a strikeout total that undersells his usual number, and Dominic Canzone's total bases prop leans the same direction. Three different reasons to bet the under, three different players trending the wrong way for their respective overs. Griffin's slump is the headliner here, an 8-for-40 stretch that's hard to ignore.
Konnor GriffinMIL @ PIT · PNC Park6:40 PM ET Griffin is hitting .200 over his last 10 games, going 8-for-40 with just 4 RBI in that stretch. That's not a small sample blip, it's a real cold spell, and it's exactly the kind of form that makes a hard-hit rate number look inflated. The model has him projected at 1.0 against a 1.5 line, and at -160 this is about betting that a struggling hitter keeps struggling against MIL pitching tonight at PNC Park.
Sean ManaeaBAL @ NYM · Citi Field7:10 PM ET A 7.22 ERA over his last five outings tells you Manaea hasn't had his stuff working, and 20 strikeouts across those five starts works out to right around 4 per outing on average. That's a long way from clearing 6.5 tonight against Baltimore. The projection sits at 5.8, giving this a healthy gap under the line at -135.
Dominic CanzoneSEA @ LAA · Angel Stadium9:38 PM ET Canzone's been a respectable hitter of late, 12-for-44 for a .273 average with a homer and 5 RBI over his last 10 games, but that power output hasn't translated into big total-base nights. One home run in 10 games and a modest overall line points to a lot of singles rather than extra-base damage. The projection lands at 1.1 on a 1.5 line, and at -145 the model likes the under piece even with the batting average trending fine.
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