Tuesday Night MLB Intel

Burnes tops tonight's board with a perfect 100 EP Score, the clearest signal on the slate. The projection sits at 12.6 outs against an 11.5 line, and at -143 the market is basically agreeing with the model that this is a deep-into-the-game type of night for him. When a starter grades out this cleanly, it usually means the workload expectation is real, not a coin flip.

Manaea has been getting hit hard lately, a 5.87 ERA over his last 5 outings, and while he's still racked up 27 strikeouts in that stretch, the model only has him projected for 4.9 tonight against Miami. That gap between recent whiff totals and tonight's expectation suggests either a shorter outing or a lineup that isn't chasing much. At -130, the number lines up with a pitcher who's been searching for answers his last five times out.

This one's a little counterintuitive on the surface. Conforto's actually swinging it well lately, 7-for-21 with 2 homers and 5 RBI over his last 10 games, which is the kind of form that usually points the other way. But the model still projects him at just 0.3 hits tonight against Milwaukee, and a single game is still a single game no matter how hot the last 10 have been. At -156, the number reflects that even a .333 hitter over a small sample fails to get a hit more often than not on any given night.