EP Model 9-for-10 Last Night. Three 93+ Scores for Cavs-Knicks Game 4
Happy Monday, let's start the week right.
The EP Model absolutely cleaned up last night, hitting 9 out of its top 10 EP Scores and sweeping all 90+ PTS, REB, AST, and 3's. Tonight we're riding that momentum into Cavaliers-Knicks Game 4 with three playoff props that all scored 93+ from the model: Mitchell in a scorching-hot home playoff spot, Towns' assist volatility setting up an under, and Robinson's rebounding edge against Cleveland's weak interior defense. Full picks and tonight's watch list are in the app.
Donovan Mitchell Mitchell has scored 30-plus in back-to-back playoff games against Toronto, shooting 55.8% from the field, and the model projects him for 30.4 points tonight—a +3.9 edge at 99 EP Score. He's back home at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse where Cleveland averages 27.9 points per game as a team, and New York ranks 7th in opponent SG defense, allowing 29.9 PPG to the position. Mitchell had a rough 23-point outing on 9-for-21 shooting in Game 3 against the Knicks on May 24, but he's healthy with no injury report concerns and the Cavs need him to bounce back in a must-win Game 4.
Karl-Anthony Towns Towns has averaged 6.0 assists over his last five games and 6.6 per game through two playoff rounds, but the Cleveland matchup has produced wild volatility—5 assists in Game 1, then just 1 assist in Game 2. We're projecting 3.7 for a +0.8 edge at 99 EP Score, well below the 4.5 line and aligned with his 3.0 season average. Cleveland allows 3.0 assists to centers (league-average defense), and Towns' most recent game against this frontcourt saw him record a single dime despite elevated usage.
Mitchell Robinson Robinson grabbed 16 rebounds in 19 minutes against Cleveland earlier this series and projects for 7.0 tonight, a +2.5 edge at 93 EP Score. Cleveland ranks 19th in defense against opposing centers and allows 11.1 RPG to the position, and Robinson's 8.8 season average is nearly double the 4.5 line. He's coming off the bench in his usual 16-minute role with one day of rest, healthy and efficient at 67.6 TS%, and he's shown he can dominate the glass in limited minutes against this exact opponent.
Key Context
All three props come from the same Cavaliers-Knicks Game 4 (spread: NYK +2.5, O/U: 218.5). Mitchell and Robinson both benefit from Cleveland’s home environment and New York’s defensive vulnerabilities at their positions. Towns’ assist volatility against Cleveland’s frontcourt makes the under appealing despite his elevated playoff passing numbers overall.
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