17-3 Night, +11u Profit: Three More Playoff Edges Tonight

Johnson's averaging 20.6 R+A over his last five games, including an 18 R+A performance in Game 3 against the Knicks. We're projecting 20.3 for a +4.8 edge at 99 EP Score. The Knicks rank 7th defending power forwards—middle-of-the-pack, not lockdown—and Johnson's 27.2% usage rate in a playoff elimination game at home puts the ball in his hands constantly. He's cleared this number in three of his last four playoff games, and the model sees him doing it again with room to spare.

Wembanyama's averaging 34.6 points and 4.0 assists over his last five games, and he just dropped 36 P+A in his most recent playoff outing. We're projecting 34.7 on a 30.5 line, that's a +4.2 edge at 99 EP Score. Portland ranks dead last (28th) defending centers, and Wembanyama's 32.6% usage rate at home with a chance to close out the series in Game 5 means San Antonio will run everything through him. He's fully cleared from concussion protocol with no injury designation, and this matchup is a layup.

Brown's scored 25+ in eight straight games and is averaging 28.9 points over his last five. We're projecting 31.5 for a +5.0 edge at 97 EP Score. Philadelphia ranks 21st defending shooting guards and allows 31.5 PPG to the position, and Brown's 36.5% usage rate in a home playoff opener against a vulnerable defense sets up perfectly. He's fully healthy after clearing Achilles tendinitis earlier this month, and the Celtics will lean on him heavily in Game 1.