EP Model 77% on Unders Yesterday, Two Overs Tonight at 96 & 94

Booker dropped 23, 22, and 16 in the first three games of this series, briefly leaving Game 3 with an ankle tweak before returning minutes later. He's cleared to play tonight and we're projecting 28.5 against a 23.5 line — that's a +5.0 edge at 96 EP Score. Oklahoma City ranks 9th in defense against shooting guards but still allows 29.0 PPG to the position, and Booker's 32.5% usage rate with 58.4% true shooting means he's getting his looks. Phoenix is down 0-3, playing at home, and facing elimination. This is the spot where stars show up.

Wagner's averaging 30.4 P+R+A over his last five games and posted 28 combined in Game 1 of this series (19 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists). We're projecting 28.3 for a +1.8 edge at 94 EP Score. Detroit allows 33.7 P+R+A to small forwards and ranks 6th-easiest defensively against the position — Wagner's been the primary offensive engine for Orlando in this playoff run, and he's finally looking comfortable after working through that ankle injury earlier. He played 32 minutes in Game 1 and should see similar run tonight with Orlando up 1-0 and controlling the series tempo.