Week 5 Recap: What Held, What Didn't, and What Changes in Week 6

• Wide receivers. Receivers went 13-6 at 90+, a third straight winning week after 11-6 and 15-6. Nacua went for 138 yards on a line of 95.5, Pickens 130 on 64.5, Bernard 80 on 19.5 and Tez Johnson 64 on 12.5. On the season, wide receivers are 48-25 at 90+.
• Touchdown scorers. Anytime TD picks went 6-1 at 90+. Gibbs, Cook and Adams each scored twice, with Adams at +105, and Nacua, Kyren Williams and Javonte Williams all found the end zone. Through five weeks, the anytime TD model is 25-7 at 90+.
• Lions-Cardinals. The best game of the week went 8-1 at 90+. Gibbs went 3-0 with 25 carries on a line of 19.5, 151 rushing yards on 90.5 and two touchdowns, and LaPorta cleared both his catches and his 53.5 receiving yards with 88.
• Jets-Browns. Braelon Allen went 3-0 at 90+ with 24 carries on a line of 17.5 and 116 yards on 71.5, and both Concepcion unders cashed with room to spare. The game finished 5-2 at 90+.
• Monday night. Every touchdown pick at 90+ in Bills-Rams scored, and Nacua cleared his yards by more than 40. Across every score on the board, over and under props in that game went 39-20.
• The whole board. Across every score in every game, over and under picks went 365-344, a second straight winning week on that count.

• The very top of the board. The full 90+ board finished 58-66, and our five highest scores all missed. Most of them were low lines on players with small roles, where one or two plays decide the result. That is where our work is going this week.

The highest scores. The steadiest part of the board all season has been players with established roles: starting receivers, lead backs and touchdown scorers. The misses at the very top have come from the other end, on small-role players with very low lines. We are reworking how the top tier is ordered so the highest scores sit on players whose roles we can count on, and we will tell you here when that change is in.

The bigger picture. Wide receivers have now won at 90+ three weeks running, and touchdown scorers have had a winning record at 90+ in all five weeks. Those are the reads built on the most data, and they are getting more of it every week.