Monday Night NFL Intel
Puka Nacua is averaging 99.5 yards a game, and Monday night he gets the pass defense giving up more than almost anyone. The Bills are 3-1, but they've allowed 256.3 passing yards a game, third-most in the league. Los Angeles is favored by 3.5 with the total sitting at 54.5. Puka Nacua and Dalton Kincaid both land in spots the model likes against defenses trending the wrong way.
Puka NacuaBUF at LARMonday, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET Nacua's averaging 99.5 yards a game through two games with the Rams this season, already clearing this number on his own pace. Buffalo's allowed 256.3 passing yards per game this year, third-most in the league, and the model has him catching 67% of his targets, well above the 64% league average. That combination of volume and a leaking secondary is the whole case here.
Colby ParkinsonBUF at LARMonday, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET Parkinson's been nearly invisible this season, averaging just 7 yards a game through three games. Last season he was good for 27.2 yards a game with eight touchdowns, and the model points to his separation, 3.3 yards on average in 2025, as a sign a bigger game is coming against a defense that's been vulnerable through the air.
Dalton KincaidBUF at LARMonday, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET Kincaid's averaging 67.5 yards a game through four games this season, already well above this line. The Rams have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league this season, but Kincaid keeps getting open anyway, averaging 3.0 yards of separation with plus yards after the catch. The volume says this number is soft no matter how stingy that secondary has looked.
Los Angeles is favored by 3.5 with the total at 54.5, and the Rams sit 2-2 while Buffalo is 3-1 behind an offense averaging 31.8 points a game through four weeks. DJ Moore, Dee Alford, Joshua Palmer and Ed Oliver are all banged up for Buffalo, while Myles Garrett is on injured reserve with a knee injury for Los Angeles. Kickoff is 8:15 ET at SoFi Stadium.
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