Sunday NFL Intel

Henry is averaging 22.3 carries a game through four games this season with Baltimore, well above his usage last season when he ran 18.1 times a game across 17 games. But the matchup here is the whole story. Atlanta has allowed just 48.3 rushing yards per game this season, the fewest in the league, and 2.7 yards per carry, also the league's lowest mark, a massive drop from the 126.2 yards and 4.6 per carry they allowed last season. The model also notes that unders tend to cash a bit more often on rush-attempt props generally, adding a little extra lean to fading the big workload here.

Gibbs is averaging 20 carries a game through four games this season, up from 14.3 a game last season, and the model flags him as carrying 91% of Detroit's red-zone carries against a league average of 45%, which is the kind of role that keeps volume steady even when a game script shifts. Arizona has allowed 117.5 rushing yards per game this season, 13th-most in the league, and 4.2 yards per carry, continuing a pattern from last season when they gave up 126.9 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. The model has Gibbs pegged for 20.1 carries in this one, right on the number needed to clear the line.

Herbert is sitting at 204 passing yards per game through four games this season, just above this line, after averaging 232.9 a game last season. Denver's pass defense looks different than the unit that finished last season allowing just 187.2 yards per game, 7th-fewest in the league. Through four games this season they're giving up 232.3 yards per game, 11th-most, and the model notes Denver's pass rush is generating pressure only 21% of the time, 13th-softest, while the defense as a whole is allowing 6.4 yards per attempt, 16th-softest. The model projects Herbert for 210.6 yards here, and the combination of a shakier Denver pass defense and a quarterback who topped 230 a game last season makes the over the lean.