Week 4 Recap: What Held, What Didn't, and What Changes in Week 5

• Wide receivers. Receivers went 15-6 at 90+ after going 11-6 in Week 3. Jeudy, Treadwell, Fields and Downs each went 2-0, and Olave caught eight on Monday night. On the season, wide receivers are 35-19 at 90+.
• Running back overs. Overs on running backs went 22-12 at 90+. Walker ran for 177 yards on a line of 85.5, Robinson went for 145 and two touchdowns on Monday night, and Tuten cleared his carries, rushing yards and receiving yards.
• Touchdown scorers. Gibbs, Taylor, Henry and Robinson all scored at 90+, and Vele cashed at +250 on Monday night. Through four weeks, the anytime TD model is 19-6 at 90+.
• Pass attempts. Pass attempt overs went 7-2 at 90+. Burrow threw 54 times on a line of 35.5, Goff 52 on 33.5 and Prescott 45 on 35.5.
• The top of the board. The full 90+ board went 67-62, and the 95+ tier went 16-13. Packers-Buccaneers went 7-1 at 90+, Colts-Commanders in London 7-3 and Jaguars-Bengals 6-2.
• Monday night. The model had the Falcons leaning on the run and the Saints throwing to keep up, and that is how it played. Across every score on the board, over and under props in that game went 38-13.

• Passing touchdowns. Passing TD props went 2-9 at 90+. Five quarterbacks we had over 1.5 finished with exactly one. It is the category we are watching most closely.

Receivers move up, rushing settles in. Last week we said the biggest rushing reads would be the first to come down, and that is now built into the board. Starting with Week 5, rushing props sit lower inside the top tiers unless the read is unusually strong, and wide receivers take more of the receiving spots at 90+ and rank higher within them. The result is a top of the board with more of the names you came for. This week that means Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Michael Pittman Jr. in the high 90s.

The bigger picture. Week 5 is the week this season's numbers take over. Every team now has four games of 2026 data, so the player and defense numbers behind each read come from this season wherever they exist. That matters, because in our backtests the opening weeks are the weakest stretch and the model is stronger once the season's own data is in. Two of the last three weeks have been winners at 90+, with wide receivers and touchdown scorers leading the way. Week 5 picks are live in the app now, starting with Buccaneers at Cowboys on Thursday night.