Friday Night MLB Intel
David Sandlin's strikeout total might be the strangest number on the board tonight, and Aaron Judge showing up on an unders list is the kind of thing that makes you double check the date. Throw in Adley Rutschman scuffling against a Rays staff on the road, and you've got a card built almost entirely around fade angles instead of chasing hot streaks. The through-line tonight isn't who's rolling, it's who's cold enough that the market hasn't fully caught up.
David SandlinDET @ CWS · Rate Field7:40 PM ET Sandlin's ERA sitting at 6.66 over his last 5 outings tells you the results haven't been pretty, but the strikeouts have kept coming, 25 punchouts in that stretch. That's a swing-and-miss arm even when the runs are crossing the plate behind him. Against Detroit at Rate Field, the model likes him to clear this outs number at +111, and a pitcher missing bats at that rate gives him a real path to length even in a rough outing.
Aaron JudgeNYY @ AZ · Chase Field9:40 PM ET Judge is 6-for-35 over his last 10 games, a .171 stretch that's about as quiet as it gets for him. One homer and seven RBI in that span isn't nothing, but the everyday impact just hasn't been there, and total bases have followed suit. Facing Arizona at Chase Field, -135 isn't cheap, but the recent sample supports staying under the number rather than betting on a sudden turnaround.
Adley RutschmanBOS @ TB · Tropicana Field7:10 PM ET Rutschman's line over his last 10 games, 8-for-38 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI, looks decent on the surface until you realize the average sits at .211. The power has shown up in flashes, but the consistency hasn't, and this Boston lineup heads into Tampa Bay with Rutschman projected right around 1.2 on this number. At -140, the price reflects a real lean toward the under holding.
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