market
Moneyline
Also known as: ML, Money Line
The moneyline is a bet on which team or competitor will win a game outright, without point-spread adjustment. Odds are expressed as American odds, with negative numbers indicating favorites and positive numbers indicating underdogs.
The moneyline is the simplest bet in sports: pick the winner. No spread, no total, just which team finishes ahead. Odds reflect the probability of each side winning, with vig built in. Favorites carry negative prices (you risk more than you win); underdogs carry positive prices (you risk less than you win).
American moneyline conversion: for negative odds, implied probability = abs(odds) / (abs(odds) + 100). For positive odds, implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100). A -200 favorite is implied at 66.7%; a +170 underdog at 37.0%. The two sum to 103.7% on a typical market, with the 3.7% being the book’s vig.
Worked example. NBA game: Team A -300, Team B +240. Implied probabilities: 75% and 29.4%, summing to 104.4% (4.4% vig). No-vig probabilities: 71.8% and 28.2%. A model that projects Team A to win 70% of the time has the moneyline as approximately fair (slight edge to Team B). A model projecting Team A at 78% has an edge on the favorite worth roughly 6 points of probability, which translates to substantial EV at -300.
Moneyline EV calculations are dominated by underdog payouts. A 5-point probability edge on a +200 underdog is much more valuable than a 5-point edge on a -200 favorite, because the payout on a winning underdog covers many losing bets. Elite Picks’ moneyline rankings prefer underdog edges when the model and market disagree, and treat favorite edges more cautiously because winning percentages must be very high to overcome the price.
Example
Team A -200 means a bettor risks $200 to win $100 if Team A wins. Team B +170 means a bettor risks $100 to win $170 if Team B wins.