betting concept
Hold Percentage
Also known as: Hold, Theoretical Hold
Hold percentage is the share of total wagers a sportsbook expects to keep as profit across a market, computed from the vig built into the odds. It is the book-side equivalent of vig from the bettor's perspective.
Hold percentage is how sportsbooks describe their margin. Where bettors think in terms of vig (excess implied probability), books think in terms of hold (share of handle retained). The two describe the same phenomenon from opposite sides.
The formula for two-way markets: hold = (sum of implied probabilities - 100) / sum of implied probabilities. For a -110/-110 market, that is (104.76 - 100) / 104.76 = 4.55%. For a -120/+100 market, hold is 4.31%. For a same-game parlay with three legs at -110 each, theoretical hold can exceed 12%.
Worked example. A book offers a player prop at -125/-105. Implied probabilities are 55.6% and 51.2%, summing to 106.8%. Hold percentage is 6.8 / 106.8 = 6.37%. Across $1 million in total handle on this prop, the book expects to keep $63,700 regardless of outcome, assuming balanced action.
Hold varies by market. Sides and totals on major sports run 4-5%. Player props run 6-8%. Futures and exotic markets can run 15-25%. Same-game parlays and combo bets stack hold across legs and can reach 30-40%. The higher the hold, the harder it is for any bettor (sharp or recreational) to win long term.
Elite Picks surfaces hold-adjusted edge on every prop. A 3% raw edge against a market with 8% hold is not the same as 3% edge against a 4.5% hold market; the lower-hold market is far more efficient and the model needs to clear a higher bar to claim a real signal.
Example
A two-way market with implied probabilities summing to 105% has a 4.76% hold (5 / 105). Of every $100 wagered, the book expects to keep $4.76.