statistical
Confidence Interval
Also known as: CI, Confidence Band
A confidence interval is a range that quantifies the uncertainty around a point estimate. A 95% confidence interval is the range within which the true value would fall in 95 out of 100 repeated samples, given the modeling assumptions.
A confidence interval describes how much wiggle room exists around a single-number projection. Every model output is an estimate, and every estimate has uncertainty. A model that projects “22.5 points” is really saying “the most likely value is 22.5, but values from 16 to 29 are all plausible.” Without that band, the projection is misleading.
The width of a confidence interval depends on sample size and inherent variability. Player props with long, stable histories (NBA scoring for veteran starters) have narrower intervals. Props with short histories (rookies, returning-from-injury players, low-minute role players) have wider ones. Wider intervals mean more uncertainty, which means a smaller share of model edge translates to actionable EV.
Worked example. Two players are each projected at 1.5 over their prop line. Player A’s projection has a confidence interval of +/- 1 point; Player B’s has +/- 5 points. Same point estimate, very different actionability. Player A’s projection clearly clears the line; Player B’s projection is consistent with a wide range of true values, many of which would imply no edge or the opposite side.
Elite Picks reports a projection band on every prop, not just a single number. The band is computed from the model’s posterior distribution and reflects sample size, recent variance, and matchup uncertainty. Props with narrow bands and clear separation from the line earn higher EP scores. Props with wide bands, even when the central projection looks favorable, are flagged as low-confidence and ranked lower. A research tool that only reports point estimates is hiding most of what the model knows.
Example
A model projects a player at 22.5 points with a 95% confidence interval of 16-29. The prop line is 23.5. Even though the projection is above the line, more than 40% of the interval sits below it, so the over has only a small edge.